Predicting the Winner in One Day International Cricket

Winning a One Day International (ODI) cricket match depends on various factors related to scoring as well as the athletic strengths of the two teams. While some of these factors have been well analyzed in the literature, others have yet to be investigated. In this analysis, statistical significance for a range of variables that could explain the outcome of an ODI cricket match is explored. In particular, home field advantage, winning the toss, game plan (batting first or fielding first), match type (day or day & night), and the effect of the Duckworth-Lewis method for matches shortened due to weather interruptions will be key interests in our investigation. The comparison of the accuracy of the Duckworth-Lewis method is done by receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. For purposes of model-building, logistic regression is applied retrospectively to data already obtained from previously played matches. Some surprising results emerge.